Alternate Endings - Ten Hypothetical Events That Would Have The initial landing force, which was expected to be sufficiently strong to defeat a Japanese counterattack, would probably comprise at least 3 divisions in the main sector and about 2 divisions on the other fronts.48, To counter the expected United States invasion of southern Kyushu, plans were made to attack the main body of the landing force on the sea and in the coastal landing areas. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Resistance in the Philippines was to be maintained as long as possible to delay the advance of the United States forces toward these key positions. Produced by Nina Feldman and Will Reid. Operation Downfall consisted of two parts: Operation Olympic. After these preliminary moves, the Japanese expected strong amphibious assaults against the southern part of Japan Proper. The road net running across the island was limited and in poor condition. ", "Effective interdiction of both coastal routes and the alternate route from Yatsushiro through concentrated aerial bombing and/or naval gunfire would reduce overland reinforcement from Northern Kyushu to a mere trickle as long as maintained. While the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki cost the lives of upwards of 250,000 Japanese civilians, historians agree that a protracted ground campaign would have killed millions. Dr. Alan C. Coox, Olympic vs. Ketsu-Go, Marine Corps Gazette, August 1965, Vol. TheOlympic plan included 14 army divisions in the initial landings alone, supported by an armada of 400 destroyers, 24 battleships and a staggering 42 aircraft carriers. held up the scheduled commitment of troops to that area pending further developments. The Japanese anticipated the objectives of the Allied invasion plans, although the leadership expected the blow to fall in the summer of 1945 immediately after the capture of Okinawa. And under those conditions, Stalin just might have claimed all of Europe for himself after crushing the Nazis. The Japanese tactical plan called for a rigid defense of the beaches which would be reinforced as rapidly as units could be sent from other parts of Kyushu and the western regions of Honshu. Unless there was insufficient supporting air power available or the resources in the Pacific could not be gathered in time to initiate the assault by 1945, he advocated the immediate adoption of this last course.8. As time machines cant & wont exist,hypothetical scenarios are pointless & a waste of space & time. After first stating that the final decisive battle would be waged in Japan Proper, the outline called for an immediate fortification in depth of Japan's defense perimeter. Downfall That Japan was being invaded at all was proof that the war was lost. Should Kyushu be the initial invasion point, four divisions would be diverted immediately from the Nagoya (Tokai) district, the Kobe-Osaka sector, western Honshu, and Shikoku to reinforce the strength already deployed on the Kyushu battlefronts. By the end of July, General MacArthur had a fairly complete picture of what to expect when his forces invaded Kyushu. Eventually the Japanese are dislodged from their entrenchments, and once in the open, they are vulnerable to Allied air and naval firepower. Plans for the final struggle in the Homeland provided for the utilization of all available resources, both of men and material, within a wide resistance sphere encompassing the key areas in Japan, Manchuria, and China.15, In January 1945, Imperial General Headquarters estimated that the basic strategy of the Allies included the following broad concepts (1) isolation of Japan from the continental and southern resources areas; (2) destruction of her vital industries; (3) elimination of Japan's air, naval, and land forces as threats to an amphibious invasion; and (4) extension of the effective range of U. S. fighter planes to the heart of the Japanese Homeland.16, To carry out these objectives and to prepare for a full-scale invasion it would be necessary, according to the Japanese reasoning, for the United States to strengthen its existing bases and acquire others still closer to Japan. But just in case a massive blow against the enemy proved not possible, it seemed appropriate for the name of Nippon to be inscribed forever in history by the annihilation of her 100 million loyal subjects, etc., etc. Short answer is yes, Olympic/Coronet landings would have succeeded, but very high price in primarily US casualties (basically very few Commonwealth land forces involved, just sea/air). vantage of deploying the bulk of available resources off the main axis of advance. Even if their weapons arent quite as good or plentiful as Allied equipment, theyre good enough to inflict massive casualties on the invaders. By the summer of 1945, approximately 8,000 suicide or special-attack planes had been produced by converting army and navy fighters, bombers, trainers, and reconnaissance planes. Even these halfway measures were soon vitiated by the tremendous plane and ship losses incurred in the Philippines Campaign. Fortunately, Downfall never happened. It was comprised of two mammoth and separate amphibious operations. The invasion beaches on Kyushu are studded with minefields, trenches, bunkers and pillboxes. Supporting the troops would be a 28-million-strong ad hoc militia army called the Patriotic Citizens Fighting Force. The loss of the Marianas and the Ogasawara chain, left Japan without bases from which to carry out patrolling activities and, consequently, the Japanese air forces had little or no warning of impending raids. In this case they have two optins: The Fuhrer also knew that an invasion in 1940 would be risky. Although air and sea preparations were being pushed in Kyushu, and supplies and munitions were being moved southward, the Japanese. The possibility of a diversionary feint at Hokkaido to cover the main landings was also taken into account.30. The Philippines, Ryukyus, Marianas, and Hawaii were the four Pacific bases chosen to stage, equip, and mount the invasion forces. WebHow different would the world be today if Operation Downfall took place and succeeded? Operation "Coronet" would be supported by all army and navy forces in the Pacific and, in addition, would be augmented by numerous combat units redeployed from Europe. b. Shifting the emphasis of defense to Kyushu necessitated a postponement of military preparations in the Tokyo-Yokohama area. Why would the casualties for operation downfall have been so high? The ensuing Operation Downfall envisaged two main assaults Operation Olympic on Kyushu, planned for early November and Operation Coronet, the invasion of Honshu in March 1946. d. Since April 1945, enemy strength in Southern Kyushu has grown from approximately 80,000 troops including in mobile combat the equivalent of about 2 Infantry Divisions to an estimated 206,000 including 7 divisions and 2 to 3 brigades, plus Naval, Air-Ground, and Base and Service Troops. By intercepting shipping and shattering communications, the Far East Air Force would complete the isolation of southern Kyushu and prepare it for amphibious assault.37. Plans to defend the Home Islands were not considered until after the fall of Saipan in, July 1944 and even then the outlined preparations were restricted to naval and air force actions with little provision made for ground combat. WebHistorians have generally considered it unlikely that an invasion of Hokkaido would have succeeded. And then there was Hitlers catastrophic decision to divert the main thrust away from Moscow southwards to help Army Group South capture Ukraine. In order to carry out definite defense measures, a decision as to which course of action to prepare for became necessary. The choice of the Kanto Plain for the final campaign in the Japanese Homeland had several distinct advantages. 120). Replacements for these divisions would be provided in the centrally located Kobe-Osaka area by the diversion of three or four additional divisions from the Kanto Plain and northern Honshu. Two divisions advancing from Hokkaido to northern Honshu and five divisions coming from Kyushu and Shikoku to the Kobe-Osaka area would be available for reinforcement.23, Considerable difficulty, however, was anticipated in carrying out this plan. "42, Under "Olympic" plan, General MacArthur was charged with the responsibility for the logistic support of all army forces engage in the assault operation, including the Marine Corps units under his command. Operation Downfall The terrain was working in favor of the defenders, and so was the inflexible national unity. 115) The Kokudo or national highway was a euphemism for a single-loop, two-lane gravel road, badly torn by the heavy military traffic in constant flow over its surface. Thanks again for the post. would the casualties for operation downfall have In a non detailed explanation, the USA and its allies would have succeeded. "Human torpedoes" (Kaiten) would execute, PLATE NO. While nearly four years of war had seen the Japanese fleet decimated, the Emperors forces planned to throw their remaining six carriers, four cruisers and one battleship, along with 350 midget submarines, 400 manned torpedoes and 800 suicide speed boats, into action against the Allied armada. Been Invented And America Invaded The General Air Army controlled the First Air Army (eastern Japan), the 51st, 52nd, and 53rd Air Divisions, and the 30th Fighter Group. The date of invasion, the Japanese thought, would depend to a large degree upon the number of troops and the amount of shipping the United States considered necessary for large-scale successful landings. Had Truman refused to drop the bomb, Operation Downfall would have been put into effect the largest amphibious campaign in human history. The two-part invasion was set to commence in October of 1945. Operation Downfall A miracle. The two atom bombs, dropped nearly four months before the invasion was to begin, brought the war to a swift conclusion. For starters, the terrain is not friendly to a mechanized army. To reduce the risks inherent in any assault on the well fortified and strongly garrisoned islands of Japan, a preliminary and far-reaching campaign of air-sea blockade and bombardment was advocated. These troops would meet the first assault waves and, together with the line-combat divisions, would endeavor to hold all positions until the arrival of the mobile reinforcements at the beach battleground. The casualty rate on Okinawa was 35%; with 767,000 men scheduled to participate in taking Kyushu, it was estimated Carrier planes from the Pacific Fleet would co-operate with the Strategic Air Force in carrying out repeated attacks against vital areas of the Japanese Home Islands to strangle land and sea communication and wipe out selected targets ashore. Re-supply and the bulk of construction materials would come directly from the United States, augmented as necessary from Pacific bases. XI Corps (1st Cavalry, Americal, and 43rd Divisions) would land at Ariake Bay, capture Kanoya, advance to the eastern shore of Kagoshima Bay, and then move northwestward to Miyakonojo. WebHave you ever heard of Operation Downfall? Following the Okinawa operation, to seize additional positions to intensify the blockade air bombardment of Japan in order to create a situation favorable to: b. Operation Downfall At the same time, subsidiary actions in other theaters of operations would be aimed at containing Japanese air and ground forces. General MacArthur had little doubt that sufficient power to overcome Japanese resistance could be massed in the Fall of 1945 for an invasion of Kyushu. The Invasion That Didnt Happen | Air & Space Forces Magazine Had Sea Lion succeeded, a likely scenario would have seen the British government and monarchy flee to Canada. Their immediate mission was to destroy all opposition and occupy the Tokyo-Yokohama area. Japanese plans called for these planes to be completely expended within a ten-day period in a supreme effort to repel the invasion forces. Air, naval, and logistic support was outlined along the same general pattern as "Olympic" except on an enlarged scale. 112 Any sizeable reinforcement to Japan from China or Manchuria could be effectively interdicted by the powerful ships and planes of the U. S. Fleet and by air strikes from Okinawa. It would be an amphibious landing a third larger than D-Day in Normandy. A secondary attack was expected on Fukiagehama on the Satsuma Peninsula. Once the Japanese defenders are pushed off the bushes, they just regroup inland among the hills and woods, and the Allies have to dig them out again. The other school of thought believed in driving directly to the heart of Japan as soon as the necessary forces could be mounted from the Philippines and land-based planes could be established in the Ryukyus. 30 Jun 2023. The Japanese Navy had little power left to oppose an Allied assault. "Coronet," the Invasion of Honshu, PLATE NO. With a large number of people lost in the previous fight on the continent and huge quantities of armament and logists los, is very possible the americans and brittish to not have the power to stop de soviets. The complexion of the war would have been vastly different, with the bulk of anti-Axis forces coming from the east and south. His ship was in, Indian Ocean when Japan surrendered and the mission became one of occupation, instead. (Plate No. American soldiers had suffered a forestate in the bloody invasions of Iwo Jima and Okinawa, where Japanese troops fought to the death rather than surrender. The Fifty-sixth Army occupied northern Kyushu, with most of its strength distributed along the northwestern coast from Moji to Sasebo. Meanwhile, the western Allies had barely 4 million men making up only 85 divisions. Aircraft from the RAFsBomber Command would also be redeployed from Europe for the final push. It is probable that the Japanese may resort to night barge movement. United States activities in the Pacific, meanwhile, gave clear indication that a new offensive would be forthcoming against Japan Proper in the near future.27, Although the Japanese hastened their preparations against the threat of impending invasion, they were faced with a multitude of serious difficulties. In the cultivated lowlands, the roads were built on fills rising four to five feet above the surrounding ground. Although some of the incoming units may have arrived by sea and one (the 212th Division) was probably recruited locally, it is probable that 3 to 4 Divisions which are believed to have been activated by Depots in Northern Kyushu and Southwest Honshu utilized one or both of the overland routes. h. Massing in present attack sectors is apparent. To the relief of many Americans and Japanese including my late father-in-law, a B-29 bombardier who would have flown air support for Operation Olympic Japan surrendered a few days later. Been Invented And America Invaded "Downfall," the grand plan for the invasion of Japan, contemplated a gargantuan blow against the islands of Kyushu and Honshu, using the entire available combined resources of the army, navy, and air forces. I cover defense issues and military technology. Edited by Marc Georges , Paige Cowett and Lisa Chow. All key points in the Philippines had fallen; Iwo Jima was lost; American forces had gained a firm foothold on Okinawa; Russia had started to strengthen her forces in Siberia; and Germany, was on the verge of final defeat. But owing to widespread German patriotism, this scenario is quite improbable. The Allied player can only gnash his teeth as bombs, napalm and one-ton shells from battleships barely scratch Japanese troops embedded deep in their fortifications. "DOWNFALL" THE PLAN FOR THE INVASION OF JAPAN. The two atom bombs, dropped nearly four months before the invasion was to begin, brought the war to a swift conclusion. The invasion force itself would hit 35 landing beaches that ringed the southern third of the island, all codenamed for cars: Buick, Cadillac, Stutz, etc. 121 General MacArthur also expressed the fear that United States forces would become progressively more involved in the China area, perhaps necessitating a further postponement of the Honshu operation. An assault on Kyushu for the purpose of further reducing Japanese capabilities by containing and destroying major enemy forces and further intensifying the blockade and air bombardment in order to establish a tactical condition favorable to: c. The decisive invasion of the industrial heart of Japan through the Tokyo Plain.1, On 29 March, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, working on the assumptions that the war in Europe would be over by 1 July 1945 and that the forthcoming Okinawa operation would be concluded by mid-August of 1945, set a tentative schedule for the invasion of Japan. In this case its the reverse scenario of D-Day, probably ~7.000-10.000 of ships landing in southern of england. Of course, Stalin also demanded a Western Front not only to offset the terrible losses being incurred by the Red Army (Stalin would later say, You paid with your steel, we paid with our blood), but to also prevent rival Allied forces from establishing a foothold in Eastern and Central Europe. The July 1944 Plot to Assassinate Hitler Succeeds WebOperation Downfall was the proposed Allied plan for the invasion of the Japanese home islands near the end of World War II. One day she saw a flash over the hills to the northeast, it was the Hiroshima bomb. 115 These divisions have since made their appearance, as predicted, and the end is not in sight. No definite provisions were made for the employment of air power in the event Honshu was assaulted in the spring of 1946, since it was anticipated that the Kyushu campaign would have consumed Japan's entire remaining air force. From each of these landing points, fairly good routes lead into the Kanto Plain. Berlin would have certainly developed nuclear capabilities, perhaps kindling a Cold War with the United States. Whats more, Hitler wanted to attack Russia sooner rather than later. The "Coronet" operation would be adjusted accordingly. Imagine a scenario in which both Hitler and Stalin came to a mutual agreement to cease hostilities on the Eastern Front. Downfall It overlooks what we now know was Stalins plan to breach the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact first by using special mountain divisions to take the Carpathian Mountains, cutting the Reich off from Romanias oil fields, which, other than oil sold by the Soviet Union were its only source of oil. Britains navy controlled the Channel, and as the Battle of Britain revealed, the Luftwaffe didnt own the skies. Will Anyone Buy It? Hence the attack on Normandy in June 1944. By the end of July 1945, the ground forces in Japan had been increased to a basic strength of 30 line-combat divisions, 24 coastal-combat divisions, and 23 independent mixed brigades, 2 armored divisions, 7 tank brigades, and 3 infantry brigades.19, Defense preparations in Kyushu and in the Tokyo-Yokohama and Nagoya districts of Honshu were particularly emphasized. Ive always believed Fat Man and Little Boy saved her life. But for arguments sake, lets assume that Japan didnt bomb Hawaii and the U.S. were never given a reason to declare war. But what if the Nazi dictator delayed his conquest of Russia until 1942 or 1943? Whether or not these desperate but extensive defense measures would have made an invasion prohibitively expensive in American lives is a matter for speculation. Japanese strategy was directed toward giving the landing forces no respite or opportunity to gain a firm foothold. Or how about a lite version of the scenario the Japanese smash the U.S. fleet at Pearl same as in actual history, but instead of a light bombardment of Midway Island on the same day, the actually land marines on Midway taking control of it on Dec. 7, 1941? The first phase, dubbed Operation Olympic was planned as a November, 1945 assault on the southernmost Japanese home island of Kyushu. Should these four corps prove insufficient to accomplish the tasks assigned, a build-up from the elements earmarked for "Coronet" would be instituted at the rate of three divisions per month beginning about X+30. WebHow different would the world be today if Operation Downfall took place and succeeded? He was already looking ahead to the post-war world and the creation of a communist bloc. 2. No Western Front would have emerged. After the fall of France a year earlier, the Fuhrer had his military chiefs come up with a plan for an assault on the United Kingdom, an operation dubbed Sea Lion. #1 idontlikesand The planned us invasion of the Japanese home islands. WebOperation Downfall was the proposed Allied plan for the invasion of the Japanese home islands near the end of World War II. After the fall of Berlin, the Red Army consisted of 12 million men spread across an astounding 300 divisions. Operation Downfall was the name given to the planned invasion of Japan. The bulk of the air fleet of 10,500 planes, mostly of the small special-attack type, would be launched against the warships and transports in the crucial invasion area. Another possible scenario is that the death of Hitler could have kick-started a more vociferous internal resistance movement one that might have led to civil war. The real question is just how But on August 6, 1945, a U.S. B-29 bomber dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima, followed by another A-bomb on Nagasaki on August 9. The rate and probable continuity of Japanese reinforcements into the Kyushu area are changing the tactical and strategical situation sharply. The U.S. strategy called for the assistance of British and Canadian troops brought in from the European theatre, along with a contingent of Australians. Why would the casualties for operation downfall have been so high? (Plate No. Organization of Forces for "Olympic", Force would attempt to seal the source of Japan's industrial potential by striking ruthlessly at her factories and transportation system. Could Operation Downfall have succeeded Scheduled for March, 1946 the landings on Honshu would use forces already committed along with significant numbers of fresh troops brought over from Europe. Could Operation Downfall have succeeded #1 idontlikesand The planned us invasion of the Japanese home islands. Edited by Marc Georges , Paige Cowett and Lisa Chow. Operation Downfall This is the same regime, after all, that developed a precursor to the intercontinental ballistic missile. Wait a moment and try First, Germany desperately needed Russias oil reserves to continue its war effort. The problems raised by the increasing numbers of troops in Japan, the slow-up of defense preparations caused by the lack of manpower and materials, aggravated transportation difficulties, together with the need for co-ordination of operational and administrative functions, made it necessary to simplify the command system. tion was desperate and they felt compelled to use desperate measures. (Plate No. The forces of the Eighth Army under General Eichelberger would constitute a western attack force to seize beachheads at the top of Sagami Bay. On the ground, Japan had a total of 900,000 troops formed into 65 divisions, although it only had weapons and ammunition for between 30 and 40 divisions. The 20 July, 1944 plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler resulted in tragedy on multiple levels. But the unstoppable Allied war machine soon clanks to a halt. All plans were directed toward the successful execution of the greatest amphibious operation ever planned. At first glance, the Allies appear to be an unstoppable juggernaut. The terrain on Kyushu is too rough and restricted to allow an Allied breakthrough. Operation Downfall What would have become of the Soviet Union, and the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact? While the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki cost the lives of upwards of 250,000 Japanese civilians, historians agree that a protracted ground campaign would have killed millions. Logistic considerations present the most difficult problem.9. The following extracts from the intelligence estimate prepared for "Olympic" provide an excellent illustration of the comprehensive preparation and staff work that preceded a major military campaign. If necessary, General Eichelberger would turn back his armor to strike at Tokyo from the rear.

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